Wednesday, September 02, 2015

Eichengreen, Exorbitant Privilege (2011)


Barry Eichengreen.
Exorbitant Privilege: The Rise and Fall of the Dollar and the Future of the International Monetary System.
New York: Oxford University Press, 2011.

Book Information: Publisher; Google Books; Amazon.com.

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Eichengreen published a more detailed book on the history of the international monetary system a few years before Exorbitant Privilege. It is:
Globalizing Capital: A History of the International Monetary System, second edition, Princeton University Press, 2008.
[Publisher; Google Books; Amazon.com.]
Exorbitant Privilege has a less technical review of this history (chapters 1-4) followed by chapters on the 2007-2008 financial crisis, recent developments in other currencies that could become alternatives to the dollar, and prospects for the future (chapters 5-7).

The final two paragraphs of Exorbitant Privilege:
The point is that it is not the exchange rate or the net foreign investment position as much as the fundamental underlying health of the economy that matters for geopolitical leverage. If one wants a single unified explanation for the behavior of the exchange rate and the net foreign investment position, it would again be the fundamental underlying health of the economy. Whether the dollar rises or falls by 30 percent will matter much less for U.S. strategic influence than whether U.S. economic growth averages 2 or 4 percent per annum over the next decade.

Again, there is a more alarming scenario: instead of the dollar declining gradually to somewhat lower levels, there is a dollar crash. In this case all bets are off. Here it is important to remember that the only plausible scenario for a dollar crash is one in which we bring it upon ourselves. This also means that it is within our grasp to avoid the worst. The good news, such as it is, is that the fate of the dollar is in our hands, not those of the Chinese.
(page 177)

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