Saturday, December 03, 2011

Kyle Bass and the World Economic Outlook: conversations and interview

A conversation with Kyle Bass, AmeriCatalyst, November 2010:

[via Zero Hedge]

Kyle Bass, BBC HARDtalk, November 2011:

[via Zero Hedge]
Note: The hostile and condescending questioning by the interviewer doesn't allow him to explain his answers in any detail, but does provoke him into letting off a few memorable quotes. See the friendlier AmeriCatalyst conversations for explanations of his economic outlook.

Kyle Bass redux, AmeriCatalyst, November 2011:

[via Zero Hedge]


Links from the November 2011 AmeriCatalyst conversation:

An article recommended by Bass:

Nassim Nicholas Taleb & Mark Blyth, "The Black Swan of Cairo: How Suppressing Volatility Makes the World Less Predictable and More Dangerous," Foreign Affairs, May/June 2011.
At one time you could get a PDF of the article here.

The books recommended by Bass are:

Bethany McLean & Joe Nocera. All the Devils Are Here: The Hidden History of the Financial Crisis. New York: Portfolio / Penguin Group (USA), Inc., 2010.
[Publisher; Google Books; Amazon.com; Wikipedia: McLean; Wikipedia: Nocera.]

Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth Rogoff. This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly. Princeton University Press, 2009.
[Publisher; Google Books; Amazon.com; Wikipedia: Reinhart; Wikipedia: Rogoff.]

Read the latest letter to investors from Kyle Bass, Hayman Capital Management, L.P., 30 November 2011: at Zero Hedge; at Scribd.
Some earlier letters: 14 Feb 2011; 11 May 2010.

Another notable person who has called attention to (and studied) the macroeconomics of (unsustainable) debt is Steve Keen.

Update, 01 Jan 2012: Additional item mentioned by Bass:

"The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2011 to 2021," The Congress of the United States, Congressional Budget Office, January 2011.

"CBO's 2011 Long-Term Budget Outlook," The Congress of the United States, Congressional Budget Office, June 2011.

"The Budget and Economic Outlook: An Update," The Congress of the United States, Congressional Budget Office, August 2011.

For more information see Budget and Economic Information, Congressional Budget Office.

Note that US government budget economists (by law?) base their analyses on unrealistically optimistic (i.e., empirically false) expectations for key economic variables: (1) a plateau (non-increase) in the amount of US government debt as a percent of GDP; (2) a decreasing unemployment rate; (3) increasing tax revenues; (4) decreasing yearly government budget deficits as a percent of GDP.

Update, December 2012:

Kyle Bass at AmeriCatalyst 2012: